Every spring, homeowners ask me the same thing: “Is now a good time to start the project, or should we wait and see?”
I’ve been in renovation work in the Toronto area for over 50 years. My honest answer this spring: don’t wait.
Lumber Is Moving Up — and Fast
Pricing data through Q2 2026 shows lumber up roughly 5% from the start of the year, with forecasts pointing at a potential 25% spike by mid-summer if demand continues on its current path. That’s not a scare tactic — that’s what happens every time a warm spring follows a slow winter. Project backlogs compress, supply chains tighten, and material costs climb.
If you have a deck, fence, framing job, or any wood-heavy addition on your list for 2026, the window to lock in competitive pricing is closing. Contractors who buy ahead are insulated. Homeowners who wait until July often aren’t.
What This Means Practically for GTA Homeowners
A few categories where timing matters most right now:
Decks and outdoor structures. Spring is always prime season for this work, and demand is already picking up across the GTA. If a contractor quotes you in May, that quote is typically good for 30 days. In July, the same job may come in 10-15% higher — not because the contractor is gouging you, but because their material costs went up.
Basement framing and additions. If you have been sitting on a secondary suite project (especially relevant with Ontario’s updated secondary suite rules), framing costs are directly tied to lumber. Getting permits submitted now and starting in June puts you ahead of the mid-summer crunch.
Garage conversions and workshops. These are getting popular again as hybrid work continues. If you are in the planning phase, accelerating the timeline by 6-8 weeks is worth it.
What to Do Right Now If You Are Getting Quotes
- Get three quotes in May, not July. Contractors are more competitive now than they will be when booked solid.
- Ask whether your contractor can purchase materials now even if the project starts later. Many will accommodate this for larger jobs.
- Do not delay permits. Toronto’s FASTTRACK stream is processing eligible interior structural permits in 5-10 business days right now. That’s faster than it has been in years.
- Focus on projects with clear ROI: energy upgrades, kitchens, bathrooms, exterior work. These hold their value regardless of where the market goes.
What Is Driving This?
A few compounding factors:
- Spring demand rebounding after a cautious 2025 for many GTA households
- US tariff uncertainty continuing to push some cross-border material costs upward
- Ontario construction activity picking up with new housing starts across the 905
None of these are new problems — but they stack. Homeowners who plan ahead avoid most of the pain.
One More Thing
I want to acknowledge something that has nothing to do with lumber prices. Our community has been following Samm Simon’s 251 KM charity run — raising funds for London Health Sciences Cancer Program, Stratford General ER, and Wellspring Stratford. The run is May 11, 2026. If you want to support it, the GoFundMe is at https://gofundme.com/f/2mspu-charity-run — because sometimes the most important renovation is the one that happens in a hospital.
What projects are GTA folks here planning this spring and summer? If you have gotten quotes in the last few weeks, are you seeing price movement firsthand? Post below — the more real data points the community has, the better everyone can plan.