Lumber is up 17% year-over-year as of early 2026, and some forecasts are calling for another 25% spike by mid-summer. If you are planning a renovation this spring or summer in the GTA, this is the most important cost factor you need to understand before you sign anything.
What is driving the price increases?
A few things are happening at once. US tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber have been a persistent pressure point for years, but the current wave of tariffs - stacked on top of mill closures across BC and Ontario - has tightened supply faster than the market expected. When mills reduce production, the remaining inventory gets absorbed quickly, and spot prices climb.
On top of that, steel and aluminum - both heavily used in framing, brackets, lintels, and structural connectors - are also under tariff pressure. Your contractor’s material quote from three months ago is already out of date.
What this means for your project
If you are in the design phase, lock in your material quotes now in writing with an expiry date. Most suppliers will honour a quote for 30 days. Push your contractor to order structural lumber as soon as your permit is submitted - not after it is approved.
If you are framing this spring, talk to your GC about whether engineered lumber (LVL beams, I-joists, glulam) makes sense for your project. Engineered products have had more stable pricing than dimensional lumber and often have better moisture and warp resistance anyway.
If you are still in the “thinking about it” stage, the math is starting to favour acting sooner rather than later. A $150K renovation budget that felt comfortable in January may not cover the same scope by August if lumber keeps climbing.
What a 50-year company has seen before
We have been through supply shocks before - the 1970s material crises, the post-2008 slowdown, and the COVID lumber spike that blindsided a lot of homeowners and contractors. The pattern is usually the same: people who locked in materials early came out ahead. People who waited for prices to “come back down” often waited a long time.
The difference now is the tariff layer. Tariffs do not behave like supply squeezes - they do not automatically reverse when demand drops. They require a political decision to unwind, which makes this cycle harder to predict than a typical commodity swing.
The honest advice
Get your quotes now. Get them in writing. Ask your contractor specifically about lumber and steel exposure in their estimate. If they have not updated material pricing in the last 60 days, ask them to.
When comparing bids, make sure you are comparing the same material specs - not just the bottom line. A quote that looks lower may be using lower-grade lumber or thinner gauges on steel connectors.
If you want to talk through what this means for a specific project - an addition, kitchen reno, basement finish, deck, or anything else - ask below. Happy to give a straight answer based on what we are actually seeing in the field right now.
What spring project are you planning, and how are you handling the material cost question?