Spring 2026 is shaping up to be an expensive season to build. Framing lumber prices jumped roughly 5% in Q2 after two straight quarters of softening, and tariff uncertainty on steel, HVAC components, and engineered wood is keeping contractors and suppliers from committing to locked-in quotes. If you’ve been sitting on a reno project waiting for prices to settle, this post is for you.
What the numbers actually look like
Framing lumber is currently trading around $916 per MBF (thousand board feet) — up from where it sat at the start of the year. That’s not catastrophic, but on a mid-size addition or a deck build, it adds up fast. A 400 sq/ft deck framed with treated lumber can see a $800–$1,500 swing on materials alone between a February quote and a May quote.
Concrete and drywall costs have stayed relatively stable, but anything touching steel (posts, beam pockets, lintels) or imported fixtures has been unpredictable. Contractors I’ve spoken with are building 8–12% contingencies into quotes right now — which is higher than the usual 5%.
What this means if you’re hiring trades this spring
A few practical notes from 50+ years of watching these cycles:
Lock your lumber quote early. If a contractor gives you a materials quote today, ask how long it’s good for. Some are only holding prices 14–21 days right now. Get it in writing.
Be skeptical of suspiciously low bids. With tariff uncertainty, a contractor who bids tight on materials either knows something others don’t, or is planning to re-negotiate mid-project. Neither is ideal. This thread on contractors quoting higher covers the dynamic well.
Kitchens and decks are most exposed. These are lumber-heavy projects. Bathrooms (tile, plumbing, fixtures) are less affected by the current lumber spike. If you’re choosing between projects this spring, that’s worth factoring in. See also: GTA kitchen reno costs in 2026.
Phasing works. If budget is tight, rough framing and structural work done now at today’s prices, with finishes pushed to fall, can make sense — especially if rates soften over the summer as some analysts expect.
Is this a spring blip or a longer trend?
Most forecasters expect some softening in lumber by late summer once U.S. housing starts stabilize and the tariff picture gets clearer. Canada’s softwood lumber dispute with the U.S. isn’t going away, but the acute shock of early 2026 tariff announcements is largely priced in now.
The bigger risk is if the Canadian dollar weakens further — that makes imported materials more expensive across the board regardless of what raw lumber does.
What are you seeing on your projects?
I’m curious what folks here are running into. Are your contractors holding quotes longer or shorter than usual? Have you seen any projects where material pricing changed significantly between quoting and start?
Drop your experience below. If you’re in the middle of a GTA reno right now, this kind of real-time data from the community is genuinely useful for everyone planning their spring and summer builds.
LF Builders has been renovating Toronto homes for over 50 years. For more renovation talk, check out home.renovation.reviews.